Lottery Mechanism
Understanding how Megapot's lottery works helps you make informed decisions about playing.
How the Lottery Works
Each Megapot ticket has 6 numbers:
5 normal numbers - chosen from 1 to 30
1 bonusball - chosen from a dynamic range that changes each drawing
When the drawing runs, 6 winning numbers are selected using verifiable randomness from Pyth Network. Your prize depends on how many of your numbers match (see our article on Prize Structure to learn more).
Dynamic Bonusball Range
You may notice the bonusball range changes from drawing to drawing. This is intentional and serves an important purpose.
Why the Range Changes
The bonusball range adjusts based on the size of the prize pool:
Larger pool - Wider bonusball range, harder to hit the jackpot
Smaller pool - Narrower bonusball range, easier to hit the jackpot
This keeps the lottery economically sustainable by ensuring the backers can keep their edge on ticket sales. If the bonusball range was set too low for the size of the pool then they would be incentivized to withdraw from the pool thus making the prize pool smaller for players!
When the Range Is Set
The bonusball max is locked in the moment a new drawing begins, right after the previous drawing is drawn. Once set, it stays fixed for that entire drawing while tickets are on sale.
How the Range Is Calculated
The goal is to make sure there are always enough possible ticket combinations to back the prize pool being offered. It comes down to three numbers:
1. How many combinations a single bonusball value provides. With 5 normal balls chosen out of normalBallMax options, each bonusball value opens up this many combinations:
(where C(n, 5) is "n choose 5" — the number of ways to pick 5 balls from n.)
2. How many tickets need to exist to support the prize pool. This depends on the prize pool, the ticket price, and the target edge:
Intuitively, the higher the target edge, the more tickets the prize pool has to be spread across — which in turn calls for a wider bonusball range.
3. The bonusball max itself — the range needed to cover that target number of tickets:
(rounded up to the next whole number.)
Where:
normalBallMax- the number of options for each normal ball (currently 30, so players pick 5 numbers from 1-30).prizePool- the size of the prize pool being offered for the drawing.ticketPrice- the cost of a single ticket.lpEdgeTarget- the target edge the backers keep on ticket sales, expressed as a fraction (e.g.0.3for a 30% edge).
Put together: as the prize pool grows, the bonusball range widens; when the pool is smaller, the range shrinks back down. This keeps the number of possible tickets in step with whatever prize is on offer for that drawing.
Understanding Your Odds
Your odds depend on two factors:
Normal balls - Fixed range of 1-30, picking 5 unique numbers
Bonusball - Dynamic range that changes each drawing
Calculating Odds
For the normal balls, you are matching 5 numbers out of 30. The odds of matching all 5 are approximately 1 in 142,506.
For the bonusball, if the range is 1-10, your odds of matching it are 1 in 10.
Combined jackpot odds would be roughly 1 in 1.4 million (142,506 x 10). If the bonusball range narrows to 1-5, jackpot odds become approximately 1 in 713,000; if it widens, the jackpot becomes correspondingly harder to hit.
Lower prize tiers have much better odds since they require fewer matches.
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